At the Jackson Hole Symposium last week, Bernanke gave limited hints on the Fed?s future policy steps but ? at the same time- he made clear that the slow pace of improvement in the labour mkt is one of the major reasons of concern for policymakers. Whether or not the FOMC will embark another round of QE next week, the Fed is set to maintain an extremely accommodative mode in the foreseeable future.
Today?s data might be the trigger for additional assets purchases next week. If not, the Fed is still expected to deliver further accommodation with the alteration of its communication tools. Indeed, policymakers might extend the timing of the removal of accommodation in the fed funds target until mid to late 2015.
13.39 America's non-farm payrolls are out - they increased by 96,000 last month, which is below the 125,000 rise predicted.
The unemployment rate dropped to 8.1pc from 8.3pc in July.
With US jobs growth slowing, that will spur expectations that the Federal Reserve will pump extra money into the sluggish economy.
13.28 While law experts polled by Reuters thought the German constitutional court will wave through new crisis-fighting measures (see 12.23), a survey by YouGov suggests most Germans would rather the court did not give the measures the green light.
AFP reports that in a poll carried out for the German news agency, DPA, 54pc of Germans said that the Court should order a legal review of parliament's recent approval of the eurozone's ESM bailout fund and the EU fiscal pact.
The newswire continues:
Euro-scepticism appears to be on the rise in Germany, Europe's top economy and its effective paymaster, the YouGov poll suggested.
Some 53 percent of Germans are opposed to handing over more powers to the EU and as many as 42 percent said they would welcome a Greek exit from the single currency, while only 30 percent were against.
At the same time, 56 percent of those surveyed said they were concerned about a break-up of the euro area.
12.50 It's not just the German media which is criticising the ECB for writing what they regard as a "blank cheque" to indebted eurozone nations. A eurosceptic minority of Angela Merkel's own party has also criticised the plans, with several MPs vowing to take legal action to block the plans, according to Reuters.
Klaus-Peter Willsch, a leading eurosceptic member of Mrs Merkel's Christian Democrats, told German radio:
We should consider making legal checks on whether the ECB has hugely overstepped its mandate. I am convinced that this is the case. As the largest credit nation in the whole game Germany should have a right of veto (in the ECB).
Frank Schaeffler, from Mrs Merkel's junior coalition partner the Free Democrats, said Germany should file a lawsuit with the European Court of Justice, saying the ECB was in danger of turning into a "bad bank for all the junk debt of Europe".
12.40 Portugal's economy has shrunk for a seventh quarter. During the second quarter, the country's gross domestic output declined 1.2pc from the first three months of the year, when it fell 0.1pc, according to the National Statistics Institute.
12.23 With Germany's constitutional court set to rule on the eurozone's new bailout fund and budget rules next week, Reuters has carried out a poll of legal experts to find out what they think the verdict will be.
The poll was unanimous. All 20 of those public and constitutional law professors surveyed predicted that the ruling would throw out the the temporary injunction request against the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the fiscal compact for budget discipline in Europe.
They did, however, expect the court to quality its approval of the measures, with 12 of the professors saying it will set strong conditions, in part to limit German exposure to bailouts and strengthen parliamentary oversight, Reuters reported.
12.04 At 08.41, we mentioned that Germany's conservative media have not taken kindly to the ECB bond-buying plan. The country's finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, described the media as "very nervous" in its criticism of the ECB decision.
He also said that the ECB was not financing sovereign debt with its plan. "It's not the beginning of monetary financing of sovereign debt," he said.
11.48 Francois Hollande has promised the most drastic budget cuts in 30 years as the French government gears up to present its 2013 budget on 26 September.
The president said the French government will stick with its commitment to slim the fiscal deficit to 3pc of economic output next year. Last year, the deficit hit 5.2pc. He added that the ?33bn of savings needed to hit the target will include ?10bn of spending cuts:
Part of our increased deficit comes from the crisis, but the crisis does not explain everything. The worsening of our public accounts is in large measure structural.
Alluding to the ECB's plans to buy the debt of crisis-hit countries, Mr Hollande said the move did not ?absolve governments of their responsibilities?.
11.18 Like the UK, Germany saw a strong rise in industrial production in July. According to Economy Ministry figures, German production climbed 1.3pc on the month in July.
Manufacturing output rose 1.7pc while construction activity ticked up 1.9pc.
The ministry said sentiment was "subdued", but that output had "picked up a bit" and "orders remain stable".
10.53 Falling fish stocks hurt Iceland's economy during the second quarter. The country's economy contracted the most in more than three years, shrinking 6.5pc on the first quarter, as inventories held by the island's fisheries slumped.
Iceland's statistics office said:
Unusually large changes in inventories of fisheries products between the first and second quarters of 2011 and 2012 make the seasonal adjustment between quarters more insecure. Therefore it is to be recommended that the main results compared should be the first six months [when the economy expanded 2.4pc].
10.29 Annalisa Piazza at Newedge Strategy suggests that the UK's rise in industrial production in July is a "technical correction", pointing out that the annual pace of growth remained in negative territory, falling 0.8pc on a year ago. She added:
Poor demand from abroad and uncertainties surrounding the outlook for the EMU debt crisis are still well alive and we suspect sideways movements in activity remain the best case scenario going forward.
Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight said July's sharp monthly rebound in industrial production is "excellent news" and provides a significant lift to third-quarter GDP prospects. But he adds:
Of course, the economy?s problems are very far from over. Despite July?s bounce back in output, underlying domestic and global conditions remain tough for manufacturers, and they have their work cut out to achieve sustained expansion in the near term at least.
Samuel Tombs at Capital Economics was circumspect, saying:
While July's industrial figures show that production bounced back fully from June's drop, the sector still looks likely to struggle in the coming months.
Industrial production rose by a monthly 2.9 percent, suggesting that all of June's 2.4 percent fall just reflected the temporary impact of the extra bank holiday for the Queen's Jubilee.
However, the weakness of the manufacturing surveys in August suggests that renewed falls in output lie ahead. Meanwhile, the recent increase in oil prices threatens to depress demand for manufactured goods further.
10.15 These figures probably weren't what the Greek government wanted to see with the Troika inspectors in town. Data this morning shows that Greek gross domestic product shrank 6.3pc year-on-year in the second quarter of 2012. The contraction was slightly deeper than a previous 6.2pc flash estimate published last month.
10.00 The Office for National Statistics also reports that manufacturing output jumped 3.2pc in July on the month after a drop of 2.9pc in June, when an extra holiday to mark the Diamond Jubilee hit output.
Out of 13 categories in manufacturing, 11 rose and two fell in July from the previous month, the statistics office said. It added that the gain on the month was led by basic metals and transport equipment.
And here's a graph from Reuters showing how industrial production has altered over the last four years or so:
09.35 Brighter news from Britain. Industrial output - which includes energy production and mining - soared at the fastest pace in 25 years in July, leaping 2.9pc after a 2.4pc dip in June.
09.31 Equities are continuing to tick higher this morning. The FTSE 100 is virtually flat, up just 0.06pc to 5780, but the CAC is up 1.15pc to 3550, the DAX is up 0.67pc to 7218 and the IBEX his 1.35pc higher at 7967.
Yields on Spanish ten-year bonds are off 29.4 basis points to 5.7pc while Italy's are down 12.1 basis points to 5.1pc.
09.15 Over in Greece, prime minister Antonis Samaras is meeting with European Union president, Herman van Rompuy late this afternoon. That meeting comes as representatives from the 'troika' gear up for their inspection of Greece's progress.
Ekathimerini reports that the Greek government is "on edge" ahead of the troika's return. They write:
As Prime Minister Antonis Samaras braces for the arrival in Athens on Friday of European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and officials representing Greece?s foreign creditors, who are to inspect a proposed blueprint for ?11.5bn euros in new austerity measures, it was clear on Thursday that he must also win round his own coalition.
Tensions were growing between the camps of Samaras and socialist PASOK leader Evangelos Venizelos despite reports that officials in the premier?s office had proposed a meeting with coalition leaders on Sunday afternoon when Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras is due to meet with visiting envoys of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund, the so-called troika.
Greece's finance minister, Yannis Stournaras, is also answering questions in parliament this morning.
Greek prime minister, Antonis Samaras, is meeting with Herman van Rompuy today.
08.59 Data from Germany this morning shows that the country's exports unexpectedly rose in July. They increased 0.5pc from June, when they fell 1.4pc. Although the debt crisis has dented demand for German goods in Europe, companies have compensated for that by selling to faster-growing emerging markets.
08.41 Germany's conservative newspapers have apparently not taken too kindly to Mario Draghi's plan. Reuters has a round-up of their reaction, saying they have accused the ECB chief of writing a "blank cheque" to troubled eurozone states that could put the entire currency at risk. Top-selling Bild warned his policies could make the euro "kaputt".
Reuters writes:
For the country's conservative newspapers, many of which have taken an increasingly euro-sceptic stance as the three-year-old euro zone debt crisis wears on, Draghi's latest measures went too far.
"Help without end for crisis countries," said Bild on its front cover, adding that Draghi had signed a "blank cheque" and that his policy endangered the independence of the ECB. It cited German politicians saying the ECB had gone beyond its mandate of safeguarding the stability of the currency.
"Draghi sets off Germany's alarm bell," was the headline in the conservative daily Die Welt.
Business daily Handelsblatt, which often voices concern at the financial burden of the bailouts on German taxpayers and business, had a cover story on "the Rise, Fall and Resurrection of the Bundesbank" and gave prominence to Weidmann's warnings.
...
The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, a sounding board for Germany's monetary hawks, wrote that "the border between monetary and fiscal policy has been blurred" and called the argument that bond-buying was within the ECB's mandate "far-fetched".
08.29 Asian markets were on a firmer footing overnight thanks to the ECB bond-buying move.
Figures that the markets will be keeping an eye on today include American non-farm payrolls.
08.16 There is still plenty of reaction filtering through to Mr Draghi's pronouncements yesterday:
Joerg Asmussen, a member of the ECB's executive board told German radio that it is important that the bank's bond-buying programme has clear conditions attached to it.
He told Inforadio rbb that bond-buying will only take place when the country "undertakes tough reform measures". "That is a necessary precondition for the ECB to act," he added.
Economist Nouriel Roubini has also hit the airwaves. He spoke to CNBC's Ross Westgate:
08.08 This morning, the euro is looking stronger, gaining against the Swiss franc and the yen. It is at a two-month high against the Japanese currency and at a one-month peak versus the Swiss franc.
The euro has also strengthened against the dollar following an earlier dip.
08.05 There were big moves on stock markets around the world yesterday as Mario Draghi launched an ?unlimited? bond-buying programme that he said would provide a ?fully effective backstop? to the stricken eurozone economies. Louise Armitstead writes:
Traders celebrated a break in the deadlock that has gripped eurozone leaders, despite doubts by economists.
Eurozone stock markets rose to a six-month high, led by Spain?s Ibex, which soared 4.9pc, and Italy?s MIB, which closed up 4.3pc. The French CAC rose 3pc; Germany?s Dax ended up 2.9pc, while in London the FTSE climbed 2.1pc. US markets followed suit, with the S&P 500 closing at its highest since January 2008 and Nasdaq ending the session at its highest since December 2000. Spanish, Italian and Portuguese borrowing costs were pulled sharply lower.
08.00 Good morning and welcome back to our live coverage of the European debt crisis.
Debt crisis live: archive
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